Investment Outlook

Please choose from articles and reports published by Montecito Bank & Trust.

  • February 2017 In Review

    2017-03-08

    STRONG RUN OF ECONOMIC DATA ACCELERATES GROWTH


  • January 2017 In Review

    2017-02-10

    ECONOMIC DATA POINT TO IMPROVING GROWTH


  • December 2016 In Review

    2017-01-18

    GROWTH ACCELERATES IN THIRD QUARTER


  • November 2016 In Review

    2016-12-07

    GROWTH ACCELERATES IN THIRD QUARTER


  • Fiscal Outlook under a Trump Presidency

    2016-11-18

    PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL BOOST SPENDING SOME, REAPPOINT YELLEN


  • September 2016 In Review

    2016-10-14

    BOND YIELDS TO RISE. EQUITY ENVIRONMENT CHALLENGING


  • August 2016 In Review

    2016-09-15

    POCKETS OF STRENGTH IN AUGUST KEEP Q3 GROWTH FORECASTS ON TRACK


  • July 2016 In Review

    2016-09-07

    Q2 GDP DISAPPOINTS, BUT JUNE DATA TOP EXPECTATIONS OVERALL


  • June 2016 In Review

    2016-07-19

    DATA SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED GROWTH, BUT REFLECT PRE-BREXIT ENVIRONMENT


  • May 2016 In Review

    2016-06-09

    SLOW BUT STEADY U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH


  • April 2016 in Review

    2016-05-10

    U.S ECONOMY MUDDLING THROUGH, BUT HEADWINDS MAY BE FADING


  • March 2016 In Review

    2016-04-13

    SLOW BUT STEADY U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH


  • February 2016 In Review

    2016-03-15

    Strong labor market supports economic expansion, but recession odds are modestly higher.


  • January 2016 In Review

    2016-02-08

    U.S. GROWTH SLOWS AS ECONOMIC SECTORS FOLLOW DIVERGING PATHS


  • December 2015 In Review

    2016-01-28

    FED RAISES RATES FOR FIRST TIME IN ALMOST TEN YEARS


  • November 2015 In Review

    2015-11-30

    SHARP RISE IN JOB CREATION SURPRISES MARKET


  • October 2015 in Review

    2015-11-10

    U.S. GROWTH REMAINS STABLE DESPITE HEADWINDS


  • September 2015 In Review

    2015-10-20

    U.S DATA MODERATE BUT REMAIN EXPANSIONARY


  • August 2015 In Review

    2015-09-15

    U.S. GROWTH HOLDING STEADY AFTER Q2 GDP REVISED UPWARD TO 3.7%


  • July 2015 In Review

    2015-08-27

    STILL WAITING FOR SPRING SNAPBACK


  • June 2015 In Review

    2015-07-16

    MORE SIGNS OF A SPRING ECONOMIC REBOUND


  • May 2015 In Review

    2015-06-25

    STILL WAITING FOR SPRING SNAPBACK


  • April 2015 in review

    2015-05-12

    U.S. DATA IMPROVES IN APRIL, BUT NOT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED


  • March 2015 In Review

    2015-04-10

    Winter doldrums continue with some early signs of a spring snapback.


  • Flash Report - January 2015

    2015-02-13

    ECONOMY: EXPANSION CONTINUES BUT OIL, U.S. DOLLAR HAVING AN IMPACT.


  • Flash Report - November

    2014-12-04

    Economic Data: Markets continue to receive positive news on the health of the U.S. economy as economic data on the whole is exceeding expectations. Despite declining from 2014 highs reached in January, which was largely impacted by harsh winter weather, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has been hovering in positive territory since late August.


  • Flash Report - October

    2014-11-06

    Economic Data: Following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, in which the Federal Reserve decided to end its assetpurchasing program, gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 3.5%. This was well above expected growth of 3.0%. Final sales of domestic product followed a 3.2% gain in the second quarter with an increase of 4.2% in the third quarter. Final sales to domestic purchasers, however, rose just 2.7% after gaining 3.4% in the prior period.


  • Flash Report - September

    2014-10-06

    Economic Data: The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index trended sharply into positive territory throughout August as economic data on the whole surpassed expectations. The positive trend reversed during September but remains in positive territory, painting a mixed picture of the overall housing market.


  • Flash Report - August

    2014-09-05

    Economic Data: The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index trended sharply into positive territory throughout August as economic data on the whole surpassed expectations. Notable readings came from ISM service and manufacturing surveys, revisions to Q2 GDP, housing data, and consumer sentiment surveys, amongst others.


  • Flash Report - July

    2014-08-05

    Economic Data: Second quarter GDP came in well above expectations, increasing at an annualized rate of 4.0%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis, who compiles the data, also released revisions for the prior three years. The revised data indicated that 2013 and the first quarter of 2014 was better than previously thought, while 2011 and 2012 were weaker than first estimated.


  • Flash Report - June

    2014-07-07

    Economic Data: Despite equity markets’ trend upwards, economic data came in below expectations for much of the quarter. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index trended in negative territory for the majority of the quarter as housing and retail data fell shy of expectations.


  • Flash Report - May

    2014-06-05

    Economic Data: The second estimate of first quarter GDP showed the US economy contracted by 1.0% quarter-over-quarter. This is a substantial shortfall relative to consensus forecasts of a 0.5% decline. Investors did not seem overly concerned with the disappointing GDP revision as markets remained in positive territory.


  • Flash Report - April

    2014-05-05

    Economic Data: Economic data seemed to turn positive in April as the Citigroup Economic Surprise index (CESI) reversed its downward march. Despite still being in negative territory, the index is trending up as the impact from the severe winter weather is behind us.


  • Flash Report - March

    2014-04-07

    Economic Data: The Citigroup Economic Surprise index (CESI) trended down for a majority of the quarter and entered negative territory in mid-February. Despite economic data falling short of expectations, equity markets still rallied in February and March as the S&P 500 was up 4.6% and 0.8%, respectively.


  • Flash Report - February

    2014-03-06

    Economic Data: Economic data continued its downward momentum from late January as the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) trended into negative territory in late February. Severe weather continues to be viewed as the main culprit.


  • Flash Report - January

    2014-02-05

    Economic Data: US economic data continued to trend positively throughout most of January, but took a nasty downturn in the waning days of the month.


  • Flash Report - December

    2014-01-06

    Economic Data: US economic data trended in positive territory for the better part of Q4 2013. The Citigroup Economic Surprise index (CESI) declined into negative territory briefly during the month of November before trending sharply upwards and well into positive territory to end the year.


  • Flash Report - November

    2013-12-06

    Economic Data: US economic data trended in mostly positive territory for the month of November. The Citigroup Economic Surprise index (CESI) drifted in a fairly narrow range following a sharp decline in the preceding months.


  • Flash Report - October 2013

    2013-11-06

    Economic Data: With the government shutdown at the forefront of headlines during the first half of October, US economic data appeared to trend in a mostly negative direction for much of the month. The Citigroup Economic Surprise index (CESI) traced noticeably higher during Q3, but sharply reversed in early October.


  • Flash Report - July 2013

    2013-08-05

    Economic Data: The economy showed encouraging signs of growth throughout the month of July as a number of major economic indicators came in positive. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) remained in negative territory throughout the month, but has trended dramatically higher into positive territory over the previous week. This expansion into positive territory indicates that economic data is exceeding expectations to the upside.


  • Flash Report - June 2013

    2013-07-08

    Economic Data: The economy showed positive signs of growth throughout Q2 as economic data appeared to stabilize. Volatility, as measured by both S&P standard deviation and the VIX, picked up in the second half of the quarter as the Federal Reserve discussed tapering its bond-purchasing program.


  • Flash Report - May 2013

    2013-06-06

    Economic Data: Throughout the month of May, economic data came in negative as measured by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI). Despite reversing its negative trend into positive territory towards the end of April, the CESI trended down for much of May. The index ended the month in negative territory and has continued on the same path through the beginning of June.


  • Flash Report - April 2013

    2013-05-08

    Economic Data: As April came to a close, economic data reversed its negative trend throughout the month, as represented by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index. The index continued to show signs of weakening in April, but then turned positive going into May as economic data began to surprise on the upside.


  • Flash Report - March 2013

    2013-04-09

    Economic Data: As the first quarter came to a close, economic data turned slightly negative, as represented by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index. The index trended up throughout February, but then turned negative over the course of March as economic data began to surprise to the downside.


  • Flash Report - February 2013

    2013-03-14

    Economic Data: The pace of positive economic data improved in February, as represented by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index. A stunning personal income report on the first day of the month sent the index racing higher, while sharply improved ISM manufacturing figures and a steep drop in the trade deficit gave the index a subsequent lift...


  • Flash Report - December


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